Bank of England warns of 'worst-case scenario' recession


The UK's GDP would nosedive for at least five years, crippling finances and triggering a worse recession than the 2008 crisis. Bank governor Mark Carney said in a press conference following the report's publication: "The core of the United Kingdom financial system is ready for Brexit whatever form it takes".

'They tried project fear before; they were wrong. Now they warn of the death of the first born. This finding was also echoed by the Bank of England's report.

Meanwhile, the prime minister is set to try and convince parliament to back her deal in efforts to get it over the line. Today he says they will rise.

The Bank of England also examined several different scenarios.

European Research Group deputy chairman Steve Baker MP said: "The Governor is often one of our greatest statesmen but not, ironically, when he weighs into politics". Carney added: "To be clear the Bank is ready for Brexit..."

"What the analysis shows is that there will be an impact on the rate of growth, all things being equal", said May. "It will add to the view that the Bank is getting unnecessarily involved in politics and that will further undermine perceptions of its independence and credibility".

The scenario which most closely reflects the Government's plan would see the Chequers deal tempered by some trade friction and with zero net immigration from Europe.

The figures are from a "worst case scenario" published by the Bank yesterday.

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Theresa May was last night forced to defend Dr Carney, insisting: "The Bank of England is an independent body".

However, supporters of a more definitive break with Brussels quickly dismissed the reports as scaremongering, while advocates of closer ties said the forecasts demonstrated that promises of greater prosperity outside the European Union had been a lie.

The UK's central bank said that in its worst-case Brexit scenario, the UK economy could shrink by about 8% within a year.

The BoE modelled with its Less Close Deal scenario a loss of 0.75 percentage points to GDP growth with marginal rises in both jobless rates and inflation rates. "The level of preparedness of businesses and infrastructure, infrastructure such as ports, customs systems and transportation operations, will be important determinants of how well the economy adjusts to new trade barriers".

While Mrs May continues to appeal directly to voters to support her plan, some questioned whether she would not have been better off remaining in Westminster trying to win over MPs who will decide whether to back the agreement in a vote on December 11.

She also claimed "Scotland's interests have been taken into account throughout the negotiations we've been doing", arguing that leaving Europe gives the United Kingdom the chance to negotiate its own trade deals, which could help "iconic Scottish products like smoked salmon and Scotch whisky".

If there was no deal, it would be 7.7 percent smaller.

The most interesting part of the amendment is the following: it commits parliament to "every option" that prevents this deal or no deal.