Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries met on Sunday in Algiers with non-members including Russian Federation.
Alexander Novak, energy minister for the former Soviet Union, said his country is ready to hike its oil output after the implementation of USA sanctions on Iran: "I don't think we can discuss the exact number at this point but what I can tell you for sure is that we have significant potential to increase our production". The estimates from this year's report are a slight increase from those of the previous year.
Iranian leaders have already threatened to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest sea route for crude oil exports.
It is noted that OPEC, with its 15 member states, and a group of Russian-led oil producers have reduced their production voluntarily since 2017 to boost oil prices.
Some have said softening demand from trade tensions between the US and China to offset loss of Iranian supply, but Tradition's McGillian said that unless trade tensions show signs of eroding Chinese demand, oil prices will surge further. "The long-term focus for additional liquids remains on OPEC".
The JMMC, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation, comprises four OPEC member countries, namely Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Venezuela, and two non-OPEC member countries, namely Russian Federation and Oman. The global benchmark traded at an $8.29 premium to West Texas Intermediate for the same month.
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The agreement by OPEC and other producers led by Russian Federation in November 2016 to restrain oil production has contributed to a almost 20% rise in Brent crude prices this year, Kallanish Energy finds. Weekly American oil exports reached as much as 3 MMbpd in June, while production has set several records this year.
It could prompt Washington to consider extraordinary measures, including the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to cool down fuel prices ahead of the US mid-term elections. Supplies are also forecast to grow from other producers outside the bloc including Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil, which will collectively add another 2.6 MMbpd to markets by 2023.
Even so, OPEC predicted a dip in demand growth between 2035 and 2040. "The biggest issue is not with the producing countries, it's with the refiners, it's with the demand".
Both Dubai physical and paper markets have rallied in recent weeks, with the backwardation structure widening sharply in both cash and swaps timespreads, reflecting Asian end-users' growing concerns about the Iranian supply cutoff after November. However crude's share will fall to 28% by then, down from 32% in 2015.
With supply and demand issues raging, $100 oil may not be far off at all.
He further said all producers - OPEC and non-OPEC - wanted to keep the price of oil at around $80 per barrel.