Opec predicts massive rise in oil production over next five years


OPEC isn't just grappling with USA sanctions cutting Iranian supply.

At 1108 GMT, November WTI Crude Oil futures are trading $71.93, up $1.13 or +1.56% and December Brent Crude Oil futures are trading $79.98, up $1.74 or +2.22%. "The U.S. continues to be a very important part of a global industry that is interconnected, that is dealing with a fungible commodity which is crude oil".

OPEC, along with a group of Russia-led producers, put a cap on output in January 2017 in response to a supply glut and a sustained rout in oil prices that bankrupted United States energy firms and escalated unrest in exporting countries.

But a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC energy ministers in Algiers ended without any formal recommendation for a supply boost.

It's a tough balancing act with President Donald Trump calling for OPEC to increase production to push prices down.

Brent was trading up 2.28% at $80.60 a barrel on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - was trading up 1.81% at $72.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC projects that "the strongest annual increases are seen in the near-term, in which total US tight oil increases by an average of 1.4 million barrels a day" annually from this year to 2020.

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The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with Russian Federation and other non-OPEC nations met in Algiers on Sunday to discuss the possibility of raising output but ruled out any increase.

Going into its week-end meeting in Algeria on Sunday, reports surfaced that said members would be discussing a 500,000 barrel increase.

"First, crude oil prices are rising against a strong dollar backdrop. I don't know of any refiner in the world who is looking for oil and is not able to get it", Falih said, adding that Saudi Arabia could raise output by up to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) if needed.

"If OPEC is physically unable to ramp up production, then oil prices do indeed have much further to run", said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore.

API has been critical of Trump's trade war because it limits US access to crude oil export markets and hinders the USA goal of energy dominance.

Many analysts expect the sanctions to result in a drop of more than one million bpd of crude exports. "As we produce more energy here at home, the USA needs markets for its products in order for our economy to continue to grow". That's the highest price for Brent since it touched $80 a barrel briefly in May.

"We don't believe OPEC can actually raise output significantly in the near term, as the physical spare capacity in the system is not that high", Kelty said.